[COPY] Weekly Portfolio Updates | Macro Explains The Tech Selloff
Tech stocks are struggling and portfolios are down, but we aren't worried...
APOLOGIES FOR THE DOUBLE SEND THIS DIDN’T GO OUT TO EVERYONE THIS WEEKEND! ONLY WENT TO 141 OF YOU!
Thanks to Cash App for sponsoring today’s post.
In today’s newsletter, we are taking a look at portfolio performances again (like usual, but we are also going to take a peek at all of the current holdings… on the website:
https://thesimpleside.news/ — We have been having a ton of issues getting our holdings to remain 100% updated… we are working on fixing this, but what you will see today will be the source of truth!
Alternative Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
The Perplexity AI Finance Portfolio
Portfolio managed entirely by Perplexity Finance, offered by The Simple Side on Autopilot.
The Insideredges.com Portfolio
Portfolio built by Insider Edges Premium Picks, Monthly Picks, Momentum portfolio, and Ultimate Portfolio.
10+ holdings
Picks come from across all their pro-tier portfolios.
Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
Long-term holds (12-month rebalance)
Focused on quality growing companies
15-25 holdings
Mid-to-long-term holds (3-24-months)
Focused on disrupting high-growth names
Includes monthly picks
15-20 holdings
The Second-Hand Effects Portfolio
Mid-to-long-term holds (3-24-months)
Focused on current trends, “picks and shovels.”
15-20 holdings
Other Offerings (Only Available Through This Newsletter)
Individual stocks we invest in whenever we find good opportunities.
Macro Indicator: An Explanation for Tech Stock Losses
You can find the indicator here: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators!
This week was a useful reminder that even if you are a bottom-up stock picker, macro still matters.
I do not use a macro to drive individual stock investing decisions. I am not buying or selling a company because of a yield-curve regime, a CPI print, or a Fed meeting. For individual stocks, the core work still comes down to business quality, competitive advantage, management, valuation, reinvestment runway, and the durability of earnings power.
But macro does help me rationalize what is happening in the market.
And over the past week, especially in tech, there has been plenty to rationalize.
The current yield-curve setup is a bear flattener: both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are moving higher, but the 2-year is rising faster than the 10-year. In plain English, investors are increasingly pricing in a world where the Fed has less room to cut, or may need to stay restrictive for longer.
That matters for growth stocks.
Technology, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and other long-duration equities are especially sensitive to changes in discount rates. When front-end yields move higher, the market tends to reassess the present value of future earnings. The better the stock has performed, the more vulnerable it can become when investors start asking whether the valuation already discounts too much optimism.
Just a quick aside…
This is extremely important when it comes to the current AI run, since all of these stocks are the most “exposed.” HOWEVER (and that is a huge however), it does present an opportunity to buy the dip in the future. We need to take a step back and remember that we are in Trump’s stock market, and he will not let that stock market drop. The current market is a direct reflection of the public’s opinion of Trump (in his opinion), and egos will keep the market riding high.
Now back to market info…
Tech and AI-linked stocks have been the center of the market’s leadership, but that leadership has become increasingly narrow and increasingly dependent on a small group of winners. Recent reporting noted that nearly all of the Nasdaq-100’s first-half gains came from just 10 stocks, with chip and AI-related names carrying much of the load. That kind of concentration is not automatically bearish, but it does mean the market becomes more fragile when leadership starts to wobble.
Over the past week, that fragility showed up. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both posted weekly losses in late June, with the Nasdaq down more sharply, as investors took profits in high-flying technology and chip stocks. The ETF data tells the same story. QQQ and XLK both fell meaningfully in the latest session, as shown by market data, while SPY was comparatively flat, reflecting the pressure concentrated in tech rather than a broad, indiscriminate selloff across the entire market.
The important point is that this does not necessarily mean the AI trade is over, or that every tech stock suddenly became unattractive. It means the market is repricing the risk around that trade. When yields rise, when the Fed is perceived as less dovish, and when valuations are already stretched, the hurdle rate goes up. Stocks that were priced for perfection become vulnerable to even modest disappointment.
This is where macro is useful to me (see the aside above).
Macro does not tell me whether a specific company is a good long-term investment. It does not replace fundamental analysis. But it can explain why the market is suddenly less willing to pay 30, 40, or 50 times earnings for a business it loved two weeks ago. It can explain why the same earnings outlook gets a lower multiple. It can explain why money rotates out of long-duration growth and into more defensive, value-oriented, or rate-insensitive areas.
Right now, the macro setup looks less like a clean recession signal and more like a late-cycle, higher-for-longer pressure point. Growth has not collapsed, but inflation and rates remain a constraint. That is an uncomfortable mix for expensive growth stocks. It does not destroy the long-term case for great companies, but it does compress the valuation tolerance investors are willing to give them.
My takeaway is simple: the recent weakness in tech looks more like a valuation and positioning reset than a fundamental collapse. The market is asking whether the AI and tech winners can keep delivering enough earnings growth to justify the prices investors were willing to pay. Some will. Some will not.
That is why I remain focused on the company-level work. Macro helps explain the weather. It does not tell me which businesses are built to survive or thrive in the storm.
Before we get into our current holdings and thoughts on each individual portfolio, I wanted to share the current returns we see on Autopilot so far this year.
As you all know, this one is out of my hands! All of the picks are being driven and decided by the perplexity AI. I am happy to share the currently portoflio holdings right now as the portfolio isn’t one that I have built using one of my unique investment strategies. There will be an update coming on Monday, and that update will leave portfolio weights at the following…
There have been no major adjustments to the portfolio (i.e., no stocks added or removed) by the AI for the upcoming week. I think in general, this portfolio is set up quite well for performance and potential drawdowns.
The high indexing in the XLU (Utilities Sector ETF) — in my opinion — takes away from any massive portfolio losses. The current major pressure on the economy and markets is inflation — something that typically doesn’t directly drag the utilities sector down. Overall, great picks from the AI in my opinion.
Here is another portfolio that I am not able to directly drive/effect. It comes from the team at InsiderEdges.com. Performance tracking began in late January, so we do not have the YTD option here, but I believe this is underperforming the SPY, which over the same period is up about 7%.
Now, the portfolio performance for the other portfolios — shared below for paying subscribers — is as follows. Again, all holdings can be found below!
