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"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." — Warren Buffett
Happy Saturday simple investor! See below for some quick updates before we get into this week's returns — which outperformed the S&P 500 again!
Quick Updates
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Past Performance: Averaging 1.09% Weekly
This section of the newsletter tracks the past performance of this weekly newsletter. As you will see, we have (on average) outperformed the S&P 500 from Monday to Friday, market open to market close. Take a look:
The graph shows the growth of a $10K investment which began on July 20, 2024. You can find every newsletter dating back to July 20th here by CLICKING HERE.
Here is a summary of the past few weeks of performance and a comparison of returns that this newsletter has had relative to the SPY.
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Today’s Reporting Information
Quick Overview
Politician Trading Report
Politician Stock Highlight
Insider Trading Report
Insider Stock Highlight
Executive Trading Report
Executive Stock Highlight
Investing for Next Week (For Paying Subscribers)
Next Week’s Buy Opportunities
Mergers and Acquisitions
Top Investment Ideas
Contrarian Bets
Flagship Portfolio Updates
Micro-Cap Picks *NEW*
Expected Stock Movements From Options Trading
Politician Trading Report & Politician ETFs
This report tracks the five most recent politician trades and two large holdings in my portfolio — ETFs NANC 0.00%↑ (which tracks democrat trading) and KRUZ 0.00%↑ (which tracks republican trading).
NANC is up 2.01% this week, 3.96% this past month, and 31.29% YTD.
KRUZ is up 1.87% this week, 4.44% this past month, and 20.57% YTD.
Contributing to these gains — over the past 30 days — 20 politicians have made 170 trades investing over $3.38 million.
Politician Stock Highlight
This was another week highlighted by Marjorie Taylor Green lighting up the buying section with over eight buys being initiated Tuesday. As is typical, all of her purchases remained within the 1K-15K range and none seemed out of the ordinary.
There was, however, a perfectly timed buy that was reported this week. Tina Smith, a Democrat out of MN, bought Tactile Systems Tech (TCMD) stock last Monday and didn’t report on it until yesterday at noon. Well, the stock jumped over 13% this week. (No wonder that Democrat ETF NANC is doing so well). Analysts predict the stock will return 17.65% over the next year while my models say the stock is currently overvalued by 26%. The stock would need to experience a 48% growth in free cash flow over the next year to be worth the current stock price. I do not see the stock as a purchase at the current valuation.
Here are the most recent politician trades:
Insider Trading Report
This report tracks the five largest insider buys from the past week and a new ETF in my portfolio — ticker SURE — which tracks insider trading.
SURE is down 0.09% this week, 2.88% this month, and 16.30% YTD.
Insider Stock Highlight
Insiders made a few interesting buys this week, and if you’ve been following this newsletter for a while then you know that PBF Energy (PBF) has been experiencing a massive amount of insider buying from the largest family office in Mexico. They were active buyers again this week, so let’s take another look at the stock to see how I feel about it this week.
The last time we analyzed the stock it had a rating of 7.0/10 driven by great value and financial strength rankings. Since then, the financial strength ranking dropped from an 8 to a 6, free cash flow has continued to decline, and company financials have been in a downturn. On poor results last quarter, however, the company opted to raise dividends by 10% which came as a surprise to me. The dividend raise leads me to believe that the comapny sees a strong future ahead. I think PBF is a 🟡Watch List🟡 stock this week. See a quick one-pager below.
Here are the largest trades from this past week:
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Executive Trading Report
This report tracks the five most recent stock trades from company executives.
Total executive ownership in our top 5 companies grew by over 155%.
The largest increase came from a director at Ohio Valley Banc Corp (ticker OVBC). They increased their ownership by +95% at a purchase price of $25.34 and the stock currently sits at $27.75.
Executive Stock Highlight
I also want to highlight OVBC this week. The stock is about 4% overvalued by my model’s predictions, but based solely on free cash flow numbers the stock is undervalued by around 26%. If based on earnings per share then this value drops to 2.67%.
The company has been around since the late 90’s but their stock didn’t explode until around 2018 when the stock hit a price of 51.80 per share. It now sits at around 50% below that. I ran some backtests on my value models and the stock is sitting at an impressive total score of 7.4/10 (which is one of the highest scores it has had in its history). The problem is that the stock has been overbought over the past couple of weeks which puts it in the perfect place to dip in the coming weeks. That being said, I am not completely sold on the idea of buying the stock for this next week. I am going to 🟡Watch List🟡 OVBC unless it comes up again with better financials and a lower price tag.
Let’s take a look at the other executive trades:
Investing For Next Week
Let’s get into the good stuff. Paying subscribers can see below for the buy opportunities I see in the coming weeks.
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The TLDR Summary
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