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"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." — Robert Arnott
Happy Saturday to all 300K of you simple investors! See below for some quick updates before we get into this week's returns — which outperformed the S&P 500 again!
Quick Reminders
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Past Performance
This section of the newsletter tracks the past performance of this weekly newsletter. As you will see, we have (on average) outperformed the S&P 500 from Monday to Friday, market open to market close. Take a look:
The graph shows the growth of a $10K investment which began on July 20, 2024.
These returns are representative of what I have returned since July 20 of this year when I started sending these weekly stock picks. So far, the SPY has been no match for me; however, I understand that there will likely be a reversion to the mean for me eventually.
That being said I will continue spending countless hours a week dedicated to finding the best stocks for your portfolio and mine
You can find every newsletter dating back to July 20th here by CLICKING HERE.
If you want a quick summary of how everything has performed week to week check out this image!
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Today’s Reporting Information
Quick Overview
Politician Trading Report
Insider Trading Report
Executive Trading Report
Investing for Next Week (For Paying Subscribers)
Mergers and Acquisitions
Top Investment Ideas
Contrarian Bets
Flagship Portfolio Updates *NEW*
Expected Stock Movements From Options Trading
Politician Trading Report & Politician ETFs
This report tracks the five most recent politician trades and two large holdings in my portfolio — ETFs NANC 0.00%↑ (which tracks democrat trading) and KRUZ 0.00%↑ (which tracks republican trading).
NANC is up 4.34% this week, 5.56% this past month, and 30.94% YTD.
KRUZ is up 4.71% this week, 4.72% this past month, and 20.06% YTD.
What’s fueled those sweet returns? Well, over the past 30 days, 9 politicians have made 84 trades investing over $1.07 million.
Politician Stock Highlight
I went ahead and combed through all of the recent trades and sadly, we had another uneventful past week or so. There were a couple of sellers who dropped over $100,000 worth of Tesla, but again this isn’t completely uncommon.
I will say, one stock I am paying particular attention to has been GLW and politicians have been buying it up pretty consistently over the past couple of months. Here are my quick opinions on the stock. The recent price jumps have significantly overvalued the stock. I still think the company is an 8.0/10.0 based on growth, profit, financial, value, and momentum.
Here are the issues I see:
They keep issuing debt
Their gross margin declined
Their operating margin declined
Insiders are selling
Their P/B and P/E ratios are at 3yr highs
Revenue per share declined
Price is at a 10yr high
Moderate risk assessment
To me, over the next week — regardless of the Trump election — GLW is a 🔴sellable opportunity🔴 In the long run, I like GLW and hold it in my portfolio.
Here are the most recent politician trades:
Insider Trading Report
This report tracks the five largest insider buys from the past week and a new ETF in my portfolio — ticker SURE — which tracks insider trading.
SURE is up 5.41% this week, 3.95% this month, and 18.16% YTD.
Last week’s interesting buyer was Buffet who was buying Sirius XM (SIRI), but I said the stock was on track for poor performance and guess what… it was down 3% this week — boom. This week, however, we have some new buyers in the market.
Insider Stock Highlight
The most interesting was Apmh Invest who bought $46 million worth of Noble Corp Plc (ticker: NE) stock. The company is relatively new (IPOing in 2021) and operates drilling rigs within the oil and gas industry.
Now, my model puts the stock at 2.6/10.0, but that is because I just don’t have enough data to give the stock a fair valuation. Relative to industry averages, NE is on par with almost all other companies. They experienced a 10% jump over this past week, but I think the stock has great future potential over the future Republican presidency.
I don’t think the stock is a buy for the weekly newsletter, but I do think this is worth putting into a long-term personal portfolio. The stock is new and still speculative. Price targets for the stock are at $49.00 which correlates to a 1-year + 40.85% gain.
Since I think the stock isn’t set to perform well over the next week, I want to put it on the 🟡WATCH LIST🟡 for the weekly buys, but a better long-term buy.
Here are the largest trades from this past week:
Still wondering if premium is worth it? Hundreds of people say that it is — you can join them here:
Executive Trading Report
This report tracks the five most recent stock trades from company executives.
Total executive ownership in our top 5 companies grew by over 34%.
The largest increase came from Stephen Sherrill who is a director for B&G Foods, Inc. (ticker BGS). They increased their ownership by +25%.
Executive Stock Highlight
BGS had another buyer this week and the stock is currently struggling — down over 45% YTD. Here is what’s notable about the company as of now:
Assets are growing faster than revenue — this means the comapny is getting less efficient (not good)
Gross margin declined
Revenue per share declined
General financial distress
Insiders selling
The dividend payout is too high
Sensitive to economic trends
Here is the good news
Low P/B, P/S, and price
I think in this instance, the risk doesn’t outweigh the reward. I will watch the stock on Monday and if things drop I will look at investing for the week. BGS won’t be a buy until later, but it will be on my 🟡WATCH LIST🟡.
Let’s take a look at the other four executive trades:
Investing For Next Week
Let’s get into some of the most intriguing market-moving activities: mergers and acquisitions, top investment ideas for the upcoming week, upcoming contrarian bets, and earnings price volatility.
Did I mention all of the buy, watch, and sell opportunities?
Typically, information like this costs hundreds a month, but you can get it all here (plus more) for $20 a month. Did I happen to mention that we are currently beathing the market? The subscription pays for itself!
The TLDR Summary
You pay for my research, my time, and most of all the saving of your time. That’s why we have a summary of everything below right here:
🟢The Buys:
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