No Investment Advice or Brokerage; Disclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, The Simple Side does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. The value of any asset class can go up or down and there can be a substantial risk that you lose money buying, selling, holding, or investing in any asset. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
Welcome to the only investing newsletter that will let you check off “grow my portfolio” from your New Years resolutions!
Good morning, shareholder!
Quick Updates
Our daily stock newsletter has surpassed 10,000 subscribers!
Our copy trading partner will be announced this month, so be on the lookout for that announcement!
Our letter to investors was a huge hit this past Wednesday and I have even more good news…
THE 2025 FLAGSHIP PORTFOLIO HAS ARRIVED
Since 2020 these picks have returned over 280%
Paying subscribers can access this spreadsheet with the 2025 picks now
When you request access, please tell me the email address that holds the paying subscription with The Simple Side so I can add you faster!
Past Performance of Weekly Trades
This section of the newsletter tracks the past performance of this weekly newsletter. As you will see, on average we have outperformed the S&P 500 from Monday to Friday, market open to market close.
The graph shows the growth of a $10K investment which began on July 20, 2024. You can find every newsletter dating back to July 20th here by CLICKING HERE.
Here is a summary of the past few weeks of performance and a comparison of returns that this newsletter has had relative to the SPY.
You’ll notice that some returns are higher than the stocks ending price this week — well I have developed an “expected return” for each stock pick which sets up a take profit percentage once surpassed.
If you haven’t joined already, you can click this button below to join the paid newsletter and get these weekly picks sent to your inbox every Saturday!
Today’s Reporting Overview
Politician Trading Report
Politician Stock Highlight
Insider Trading Report
Insider Stock Highlight
Market Indicators
Investing for Next Week (For Paying Subscribers) — The 2025 Flagship Fund is being released!
Next Week’s Buy Opportunities *Updated Format*
Now includes take profit %s.
Mergers and Acquisitions
Top Investment Ideas
The 2025 Flagship Fund
Micro-Cap Picks
Expected Stock Movements From Options Trading
Politician Trading Report
This report tracks the five most recent politician trades and two large holdings in my portfolio — ETFs NANC 0.00%↑ (which tracks democrat trading) and KRUZ 0.00%↑ (which tracks republican trading).
NANC is up 1.19% this week, down 3.30% this past month, and up 0.43% YTD.
KRUZ is up 1.31% this week, down 3.96% this past month, and up 1.17% YTD.
Politicians decided to break records this month with 204 politicians making 35,791 trades moving over $2.16 billion.
Politician Stock Highlight
Yes, you read that right… in the past month, politicians have traded $2.16 billion worth of stock. Now, what you see below are the five most recent trades, but I want to touch on the overall direction that politicians decided to go in the final month of 2024.
The largest buyer from this past month was also the largest seller, and he did 2 things. He (1) bought shares in European ETFs and (2) got rid of nearly every individual holding he had within the US. The politician is Markwayne Mullin a Republican Senator out of Oklahoma. This is of course in direct correlation with all of the market overvaluation talk I get into later…
Here are the most recent politician trades:
Insider Trading Report
This report tracks the five largest insider buys from the past week and a new ETF in my portfolio — ticker SURE — which tracks insider trading.
SURE is up 1.60% this week, down 5.04% this month, and up 0.69% YTD.
The monthly buy/sell ratio is 0.24 which is a market sell signal. This is the second or third week in a row now that we have seen very disproportionate levels of insiders selling.
Insider Stock Highlight
Again, it is hard for me to have even the slightest desire to purchase an insider based stock when their selling levels have been unreasonably high. If I had to pick one that I like this week it would be Buffet’s VRSN pick. It is the only stock on this list that I like and is undervalued. My models points to a 13.63% undervaluation.
Something that really catches my eye however is the ROIC-WACC differential. I have stated this before and I will do so again for new subscribers. When a company has a good return on invested capital (ROIC) then that company should acquire as much money as possible to invest. Borrowing that money comes with a cost (WACC). When your cost to get money is less than the return that money makes you, then you have a great business model. In this case, VRSN makes 46% return on invested capital and it only costs them 9.9% to obtain that capital.
This is a great opportunity for the company — likely the reason Buffet bought in. Through this analysis I talked myself into putting the stock on the buy list for this week as well. VRSN is a🟢BUY OPPORTUNITY🟢
Here are the largest trades from this past week:
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Market Indicators
Every year — just like clockwork — news articles start popping up everywhere predicting how the market will perform in 2025 and their supposed “top picks.” Interestingly, none of these articles base their analysis or conclusions on fact. I have read every assumption from “profits will grow” to “analysts are calling for a second wind of the AI trade.” Again, nothing backed by facts.
Now don’t get me wrong, I think it is completely normal to shuffle portfolios at years end; however, anyone claiming to have the secret sauce (with no past performance) is full of… well… you know.
What is the current market valuation? SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED!
We know this to be true based on a historical comparison of (total market cap / GDP) which currently sits at a value of 203% — simply put, the market is overvalued. For reference, we consider the market to be fairly valued at a ratio of 109% — 133%.
This isn’t the only ratio that shows the market is entirely overvalued. Historical multiples of PE, PS, and PB ratios all tell the same story. In fact, when adjust for past and future growth the market looks to be 20.5% overvalued.
I do expect there to be a reversion in the near term (2-4 years), but I dropped my crystal ball off at the cleaners so I can’t quite predict when. That being said, I am going to be increasingly watchful and risk-off as we climb further into overvalued territory. The current ‘dumb money’ fueling the markets won’t last forever and I want my subscribers and The Simple Side to be around for decades, not years. That may mean we hold more cash and sacrifice near term “hot success” for long-term outperformance.
Next Week’s Trades
Key Opportunities and Insights
The TLDR Summary
This is where I bring you a curated list of stocks my model says offer the best upside with the least potential for loss this week.
Each stock comes with a quick write-up after this summary so that you can make your own investing decisions. Of course, I will report on all of the stocks weekly, but that doesn’t mean you need to buy all of them or any of them every week. Do your own diligence, and you might just outperform me!
Quick PSA: We treat the trades as buys on Monday’s Market open and sells on Friday’s Market close. You pay for my research, my time, and most of all the saving of your time. That’s why we have a summary of everything below right here:
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