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Past Performance of Weekly Trades
This section of the newsletter tracks the past performance of this weekly newsletter. As you will see, on average we have outperformed the S&P 500 from Monday to Friday, market open to market close.
The graph shows the growth of a $10K investment which began on July 20, 2024. You can find every newsletter dating back to July 20th here by CLICKING HERE.
Here is a summary of the past few weeks of performance and a comparison of returns that this newsletter has had relative to the SPY.
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Today’s Reporting Overview
Politician Trading Report
Politician Stock Highlight
Insider Trading Report
Insider Stock Highlight
Portfolio Updates
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Weekly Buy Opportunities
Includes take profit %’s
Mergers and Acquisitions
Top Investment Ideas
Micro-Cap Picks
Expected Stock Movements From Options Trading
Politician Trading Report
Politician trading matters… a lot. In 2024, the top-gaining politician was David Rouser who returned 104.1% — followed closely by Pelosi who returned 70.9% over the year.
This report tracks the five most recent politician trades and two large holdings in my portfolio — ETFs NANC 0.00%↑ (which tracks democrat trading) and KRUZ 0.00%↑ (which tracks republican trading).
Over the past 30 days, 13 active politicians made 92 trades with a total trade volume of $25.96 million.
NANC was up 3.93% this week, down 1.55% this past month, and up 1.68% YTD.
KRUZ is up 5.16% this week, 0.49% this past month, and 4.05% YTD.
Politician Stock Highlight
Let’s talk about the stock I see as the most undervalued on today’s list, and that stock is Airbnb (ABNB). Airbnb is a well-known company in the hospitality sector. Currently, my model — based on profitability, growth, intrinsic value, momentum, and financial strength — says that ABNB is undervalued by 20%, and it ranks the company as an 8.5/10.
These numbers are impressive, but ABNB has two issues that may scare investors away. The source of these issues? Risk-adjusted returns. Risk-adjusted returns are a fancy way of calculating how much a stock is likely to grow based on its volatility.
The stock market has a few metrics we can use to track risk-adjusted returns: the Sortino and Sharpe ratios.
A Sortino ratio tells you how much “extra” return you will receive for downside risk.
A Sharpe ratio tells you how much “extra” return you will receive for total risk.
In ABNB’s case, things don’t look good for either. It has a Sortino ratio of -0.20 and a Sharpe ratio of -0.15. This means that you are taking on negative “extra” returns and are experiencing more risk!
Airbnb looks much too risky right now — safe investors should treat it like that weird van you always see at the park and stay far away…
Here are the most recent politician trades:
Insider Trading Report
This report tracks the five largest insider buys from the past week and a new ETF in my portfolio — ticker SURE — which tracks insider trading.
The monthly buy/sell ratio is currently 0.29 which is below the average of 0.40. This indicates a slight sell in the markets.
SURE is up 2.68% this week, 0.35% this month, and 3.88% YTD.
Insider Stock Highlight
Roivant Sciences Ltd. topped the charts with the largest buy this week — a 300 million dollar purchase of Immunovant (IMVT). The stock is up 4.60% over this past week but is down over 5% YTD.
Now, this is an extremely interesting buy. For one, the company is sitting at a 52-week low. However, the company is up over 600% from its 3-year low of $3.38.
My model ranks the stock at a 3.4/10 with the company lacking in every department except its financial strength.
The large buy could indicate insider knowledge of improving metrics within the company and analysts seem to agree. The average analyst prediction puts the price of IMVT at over $50 by year’s end — a 111% upside.
Using the same metrics we looked at with ABNB earlier, however, we see a bit of a different picture. The company is staring down the barrel of a -1.83 Sortino and a -1.84 Sharpe ratio.
This is a risk not worth playing with.
Here are the largest trades from this past week:
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Flagship Fund Update
We have a stock being put on the watchlist for sale this week in the portfolio. See the Key Change below.
Currently, our flagship fund is handily outperforming the SPY. Our current returns sit at +3.75% YTD while the SPY sits at +1.39%.
We are only a few weeks into the trading year so things are likely to change, but I am happy with the current portfolio positioning. Paying subscribers can see all of the portfolio updates by heading to our Google sheet!
Last week I talked about my top pick for 2025: KLAC Corp (KLAC). The company specializes in optimizing the production of semiconductor chips. Last week when I mentioned the stock, it was up a cool 7.62% YTD. Now, just 7 days later the company has surpassed double-digit returns (nearly twice over).
KLAC is up 19.34% YTD.
Key Portfolio Change
The stock I am putting on the chopping block (or the buy more block) operates as one of the leading fixed-income trading platforms, connecting investors to broker/dealers. Basically, they work in the bonds industry — a $140 trillion industry.
The stock is…
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